Sports Betting: The Best Edge I Ever Found

Every sports bettor has a moment when they believe they’ve figured out a way to beat the system. Win a few bets in a row and all of sudden you’re convinced team totals around key numbers are mis-priced based on the full game totals. Something along those lines. Normally, successful runs regress to the mean and you realize your hot-streak was merely a case of normal variance.

But not for me. Not on the MLB hits markets at BetMGM. This is my story of the best edge I ever found, and how to identify similar edges.

Player props normally come with contingencies — rules that prevent the bettor from exploiting certain situations. For example, a standard rule that applies to MLB player props is that a player must start for bets to stand. This is valuable for both bettor and book, as bettors will want their money back if a player sits (over/yes bettors), while a book wants to protect against unders/no for a non-starter. It’s very important to learn which rules apply to the markets you’re considering betting (I’d highly recommend reading Jonathan Bales’ blog on finding the hidden rules of games).

Sometimes these rules will be explicitly stated in your bet slip. Other times the rules are buried deep in the sportsbook’s terms & conditions, only referenced by customer support when you haggle with them over a disagreeable settlement. Either way, the rules are written down somewhere. But when the rules aren’t in writing, you have to run some tests to figure out what they are. This is what I did:

Part of my daily work routine is looking at projected MLB lineups. If I disagree with a projection, I’ll check to see if a sportbook is offering player props for the player. Why is Rowdy Tellez projected to start against a LHP? I’m not sure, but BetMGM is offering +160 on under 0.5 hits. That means they’re giving him a 38.5% chance to go hitless in the game. Let’s test the waters.

Sure enough, Rowdy Tellez was not in the lineup. I checked my betslip at the end of the day, expecting to see the grey “VOID” label, but I didn’t. I saw the green “WON” message and my account balance was a little bit higher. I checked the box score and saw the most beautiful sight I’ve ever seen in my sports betting career: Rowdy Tellez, PH, 0–1. BetMGM was paying out bets even if the player didn’t start.

As you can imagine, this became a part of my daily routine. In the morning I checked projected lineups against sportsbook props. I bet the under on hits for every player I didn’t think would start, always getting plus money (if the player was starting, I’d cash out for no loss). When lineups came out, I’d repeat the process, only having to be a bit quicker. If I saw a player prop for a non-starter, I’d bet the under and watch the market get pulled offsite shortly thereafter. It was a race against BetMGM’s traders, and I was winning. When a lineup came out, I had about 30 seconds to place my under bets before the market closed and the opportunity was gone forever. It was a thrill.

Let’s jump into some math. The aforementioned Rowdy Tellez under was +160, or an implied probability of 38.5%. That price assumes Rowdy Tellez starts and gets multiple at bats. For simplicity’s sake, let’s say he’s projected for 4 plate appearances. That’s a reasonable price for Tellez, a .247 career hitter, to go hitless in 4 PA. But I was getting the same price, +160, for one single plate appearance with a ~75% probability of ending in a non-hit. I was getting +160 for a -300 bet.

Even better was that BetMGM would settle these markets if the player got into the game at all. Starters, pinch hitters, pinch runners, and defensive replacements all got settled the same way, and all were priced as if they were starting. The only time a market voided was if a player didn’t play at all. I had found a legitimate edge and was winning at a wild clip. I was hammering National League platoon players who would pinch-hit for pitchers. I was crushing Domingo Leyba under 1.5 hits markets when he wasn’t starting (I’d increase the bet for 1.5 lines, to cover the heavy juice). I had about 10–15 bets going per day and miraculously wasn’t limited by the sportsbook.

Then, after a month or two of extreme profitability, I went to place a bet on Jesus Aguilar under 0.5 hits and my worst fear had finally materialized. I saw the dreaded “You’ve exceeded your max stake” message, with my bet slip auto-filling with my new max: $3.07. I had a great, great, great run, and can now only get $3 on player props at BetMGM. I’ll take that trade any day of the week.

Oh, and if you’re wondering if the loophole is still open, I’m sorry to say it is not. BetMGM finally became privy to the error and is now voiding non-starter bets. Time to find the next edge with the next book!